Every claim, its computed status, and its receipts. Filter by status — the quarantine is not hidden; it is the front door.
| key | claim | domain | level | status | re-run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USR-2026-0042 | Multi-probe bootstrap w₀ departure from -1 at 6.8σ. | Dark energy | 6.8σ (quarantined ghost) | QUARANTINED | — |
| USR-2026-0043 | Multi-probe bootstrap wₐ departure at 7.8σ. | Dark energy | 7.8σ (quarantined ghost) | QUARANTINED | — |
| USR-2026-0001 | Dark energy evolves: a CPL (w₀, wₐ) fit to DESI DR2 BAO + CMB + Pantheon+ beats ΛCDM by Δχ² = 6.97 (2.16σ), with w₀ = -0.849 and wₐ = -0.548. CORRECTED 2026-07-26: the earlier Δχ² = 8.2 (2.4σ) used a transposed DESI Lyman-α covariance pairing — see the audit log. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | Δχ² = 6.97 → 2.16σ (was 2.39σ before the Lyα covariance fix) | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0002 | The Hubble tension is real in this pipeline: post-Lyman-α-fix inverse-ladder H₀ = 68.71 ± 0.39 versus SH0ES 73.04 ± 1.04 — a 3.90σ gap. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | 3.90σ gap (registered as 4.4σ before the Lyman-α fix) | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-09 |
| USR-2026-0003 | The evolving-DE preference appears in all three SN compilations refit through one pipeline: Pantheon+ Δχ² = 6.96 (2.16σ), DES-SN5YR 8.95 (2.53σ), Union3 11.83 (3.00σ). Separately and more weakly, the local-structure escape hatch falls about 5× short on a diagonal-covariance shell and dipole test. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | 2.16σ / 2.53σ / 3.00σ across three SN compilations (post-Lyman-α-fix) | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0004 | Binned w(z) rises from -0.920 ± 0.040 (z = 0.0-0.4) through -1.078 ± 0.093 (z = 0.4-1.0) to -1.537 ± 0.282 (z = 1.0-2.5); the trend survives dropping all SNe but dies without BAO. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | BAO-anchored trend — no independent σ quoted | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-09 |
| USR-2026-0005 | Of the five late-time dark-energy candidates tested, none reaches H₀ = 73 when SH0ES is included — all cap at 69.25–70.24. Only a free sound horizon does, reaching H₀ = 73.06 at ΔAIC = −13.46 with r_d shrunk 2.96% (~4.4 Mpc). Within CPL the fit crosses w = −1 at z = 0.381. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | five late-time candidates cap at H₀ = 69.25–70.24; only free r_d reaches 73 | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-09 |
| USR-2026-0008 | On this data combination the CPL best fit is not uniquely selected: a five-parameter oscillating form ties it (χ² = 1413.72 versus 1414.11). But at its best fit the amplitude is pinned against the code's own A < 1.5 bound with a 24-e-fold period against 1.25 e-folds of data, so the 'oscillation' is a monotone segment — and CPL still wins on AIC by 1.6. | Dark energy | χ² tie (1413.72 vs 1414.11) but the oscillator is pinned at a code bound; CPL wins on AIC by 1.6 | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-09 |
| USR-2026-0062 | The famous vacuum-energy discrepancy is not a number but a function of an assumption: against the observed 2.24 meV scale it is 10^120.7 at a Planck cutoff, 10^108.4 at GUT, 10^56.4 at 1 TeV, 10^41.6 at QCD, and exactly 1 at the observed scale by construction — four decades of exponent per decade of cutoff, with the loop-factor convention alone shifting every row by 2.2 dex. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | 10^120.7 at Planck cutoff — but 10^56.4 at a TeV; the exponent is assumption-laden, the problem is not | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0063 | The anthropic bound on the vacuum energy explains far less than advertised: a four-way-validated linear growth ODE gives collapsed fractions 0.561, 0.210, 7×10⁻³, 6×10⁻⁹ as Λ grows ×1, ×10, ×100, ×1000, placing the ceiling at 6.4×, 35.5×, 108× the observed value at 50%, 10%, 1% thresholds. Granting a multiverse ensemble removes ~118.6 of 120.1 orders, leaving ~1.55; without granting the ensemble it explains zero. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | anthropic ceiling 6–108× observed; ~1.55 of 120 orders left over, and only if a multiverse is granted | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0064 | The sharpest empirical handle on the vacuum: w = −1 is an identity for a true vacuum energy (Lorentz invariance forces T_μν = −ρ g_μν), not a fit parameter — so observation can test it. From this registry's corrected CPL fit (w₀ = −0.849, wₐ = −0.548), w crosses −1 at z = 0.380 and is phantom above it, at Δχ² = 6.97 on 2 dof = 2.16σ. That is NOT a detection: 24% of the way to 5σ, which needs σ(w₀) ≤ 0.030. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | 2.16σ — consistent with a constant vacuum, mildly prefers drift, not a detection | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0066 | The vacuum-energy problem splits cleanly along Lorentz invariance. Lorentz-VIOLATING regulators (hard 3-momentum cutoff, spatial lattice) give w = +1/3 AND a quartic divergence; Lorentz-INVARIANT regulators (Pauli–Villars, dimensional regularisation) give w = −1 exactly AND no power divergence at all. The two columns are the same fact: a K⁴ term has no m⁴ to carry it, so it must be built from a regulator scale — and a Lorentz-invariant regulator has no preferred frame to build one from. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | Lorentz-violating ⟺ w = +1/3 + quartic divergence; Lorentz-invariant ⟺ w = −1, no power divergence | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0067 | The trace-free (unimodular) form of Einstein's equations is exactly blind to vacuum energy: shifting T_μν → T_μν + ρ_vac·g_μν leaves all 16 components of the trace-free field equation IDENTICALLY zero on a fully general metric — while the standard form picks up a residual of −κρ_vac·g_μν. In FRW the trace-free equation reduces to Ḣ = −4πG(ρ+p), which depends on matter only through (ρ+p), so a vacuum with p = −ρ contributes nothing at all. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | vacuum-energy shift leaves the trace-free equations exactly zero; Λ becomes an integration constant | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0068 | The measured dark-energy drift is NOT the vacuum's renormalisation-group running, for three independent reasons. Magnitude: fitting the running-vacuum form to DESI DR2 + Pantheon+ + CMB gives ν = +0.0015 ± 0.0014 (1.07σ), while the QFT running implies ν ≈ 4×10⁵³ — a ratio of 10^56.4. Shape: w_eff(0) = −1 exactly for EVERY ν, an algebraic identity, against a measured w₀ = −0.849. Form: the irreducible m⁴ running renormalises the additive constant, not the νH² term, so it cannot be ν at any magnitude. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | ν = +0.0015 ± 0.0014 (1.07σ) vs a QFT-implied 4×10⁵³ — a 10^56.4 gap, and the shape is wrong too | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0069 | Covariance audit of the live registry: of 56 live claims, exactly ONE (USR-2026-0003's local-structure half) uses diagonal errors on a dataset that ships a full covariance — and the registry had already flagged it. Re-running the flagship both ways quantifies the exposure: full covariance gives Δχ² = 6.973 (2.16σ), while dropping only the Pantheon+ off-diagonals inflates it to 17.934 (3.83σ) — a 1.77× significance inflation, the same mechanism that produced this registry's 6.8σ quarantine. reproduced ≠ discovered | Dark energy | 1 of 56 live claims exposed; diagonal errors inflate the flagship by 1.77× in σ | PROVISIONAL | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0006 | Holographic dark energy (Hubble-horizon HDE) is ruled out by information criteria: ΔAIC = +37.5 versus ΛCDM. | Dark energy | killed — ΔAIC +37.5 | KILLED | 2026-07-09 |
| USR-2026-0007 | Sign-switching Λ (Λs-CDM) is NOT preferred by this data: ΔAIC = +1.50 versus ΛCDM with SH0ES included, with the vacuum flip at z = 3.11. The registered ΔAIC = −2.5 at z ≈ 2.0 came from the transposed DESI Lyman-α covariance pairing and does not reproduce. | Dark energy | ΔAIC = +1.50 — disfavoured (registered as −2.5, preferred) | KILLED | 2026-07-26 |
| USR-2026-0045 | Early-generation (gen1-~31) Dark Energy pipeline results exist only as ingested summaries — their analysis scripts no longer exist. | Dark energy | unverifiable — scripts lost | NOT RERUNNABLE | — |