USR-2026-0002 · Dark energy

The Hubble constant disagrees with itself

The Hubble tension is real in this pipeline: post-Lyman-α-fix inverse-ladder H₀ = 68.71 ± 0.39 versus SH0ES 73.04 ± 1.04 — a 3.90σ gap.

PROVISIONAL 3.90σ gap (registered as 4.4σ before the Lyman-α fix) reproduced ≠ discovered re-run & confirmed 2026-07-09 (R0 — David Thompson's CI; independence pending)

CORRECTED 2026-07-26: the registered 68.30 ± 0.26 / 4.4σ came from the transposed DESI Lyman-α covariance pairing and no longer reproduces. The fix was applied to USR-2026-0001 and never propagated here.

Falsify-box — how to kill this claim

SURVIVED The LambdaCDM inverse-ladder H0 from this pipeline (run_expansion_seam.py: LambdaCDM fit + the script's own 21-point quadratic h-profile with Omega_m profiled), refit at current code state or with the early-universe nuisances the pipeline fixes (omega_b at BBN, Aubourg r_d, R-only compressed CMB prior) allowed to float, gives a gap to SH0ES 73.04 +/- 1.04 below 3 sigma. Numerically, either of: H0 >= 69.71 at the current sigma(H0) = 0.39, or sigma(H0) >= 1.00 at the current H0 = 68.71. The claim also dies if its anchor is superseded: a replacement local calibration at H0 <= 70.2 with comparable error.

Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-09

quantitymeasuredverdict
inverse-ladder H₀ 68.71 ± 0.39 (was 68.30 ± 0.26) MATCH
SH0ES local H₀ 73.04 ± 1.04 MATCH
tension gap 3.90σ (was 4.4σ) MATCH
cause of the change transposed DESI Lyman-α covariance pairing, fixed 2026-07-26 MATCH

Provenance

script: expansion_seam/run_expansion_seam.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: DESI DR2 BAO · Planck CMB (compressed) · SH0ES · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09

Edges

REPRODUCES → The published Hubble tension — this pipeline independently recovers the gap

Status, honestly

CORRECTED 2026-07-26 by the kill-test sweep; the audit flag it carried is resolved. This status was assigned by hand from the public re-run audit above — it is a judgement made from that evidence, not a number this site computed for itself. What cannot move it is authority: no vote, endorsement, or say-so, from anyone including the maintainer. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.

§ Figures 2 from expansion_seam/run_expansion_seam.py

What this claim's own script draws. These are David Thompson's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.

exp_hubble.png 47.6 KB download
exp_w0wa.png 98.1 KB download
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