USR-2026-0003 · Dark energy

The evolving-DE preference appears in all three SN compilations refit through one pipeline: Pantheon+ Δχ² = 6.96 (2.16σ), DES-SN5YR 8.95 (2.53σ), Union3 11.83 (3.00σ). Separately and more weakly, the local-structure escape hatch falls about 5× short on a diagonal-covariance shell and dipole test.

PROVISIONAL 2.16σ / 2.53σ / 3.00σ across three SN compilations (post-Lyman-α-fix) reproduced ≠ discovered re-run & confirmed 2026-07-26 (R0 — founder CI; independence pending)

CORRECTED 2026-07-26: the registered Δχ² values (8.2/10.4/13.6) were the pre-Lyman-α-fix set and were mis-paired with post-fix σ values. The local-structure half rests on diagonal errors only and has not been re-checked with the full Pantheon+ covariance — flagged rather than claimed.

TENSION — the registry's self-check flags this claim

Declared contradiction with USR-2026-0042 QUARANTINED — “Multi-probe bootstrap w₀ departure from -1 at 6.8σ.”. One of these claims must eventually fall.

Declared contradiction with USR-2026-0043 QUARANTINED — “Multi-probe bootstrap wₐ departure at 7.8σ.”. One of these claims must eventually fall.

automated sweep · exact quantity-name match · flagged when |Δ| > 3σ combined · resolves only by evidence — raw feed

Falsify-box — how to kill this claim

UNTESTED Two branches, either fires. (a) SAMPLE-INDEPENDENCE: refit through the identical DESI DR2 BAO + BBN + CMB-R pipeline with each sample's own full covariance and the weakest of the three compilations falls below Delta chi^2 = 4 (the registry's own floor, from USR-2026-0001's surviving kill test). Current post-Lyman-alpha-fix values, re-verified this sweep: Pantheon+ Delta chi^2 = 6.97 (2.16 sigma), DES-SN5YR 8.97 (2.53 sigma), Union3 11.86 (3.00 sigma); the weakest, Pantheon+, sits 2.97 above the floor. (b) LOCAL-STRUCTURE ESCAPE HATCH opens if ANY of: (i) an independent local density-field measurement (CosmicFlows-4 or 2M++ reconstruction, or SDSS/6dF galaxy counts over the Pantheon+ footprint at z < 0.15) implies a local H0 excess >= 6.3%, the shortfall this pipeline itself computes as (73.04 - 68.71)/68.71; (ii) the same shell test applied to a DIFFERENT compilation's low-z sample (DES-SN5YR or Union3) shows a monopole inner-shell excess >= 6.3% stepping down with distance; (iii) a low-z Hubble-residual dipole >= 6.3% at p < 0.05 against a shuffled-isotropy null with >= 2,000 permutations in any compilation. Explicit non-route: re-running the EXISTING Pantheon+ shell test with the full covariance instead of the diagonal errors (run_expansion_pulls.py line 20) is worth doing for honest error bars but cannot fire this branch -- 6.3% in H0 is 0.137 mag of shell offset, roughly 7x the entire Pantheon+ low-z calibration systematic, and changing the weight matrix inflates errors rather than multiplying a central value by five.

Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-26

quantitymeasuredverdict
Pantheon+ Δχ² = 6.96 → 2.16σ MATCH
DES-SN5YR Δχ² = 8.95 → 2.53σ MATCH
Union3 Δχ² = 11.83 → 3.00σ MATCH
local-structure test shells flat to 1–2% against the 6.3% required; dipole 1.31%, p = 0.24 — DIAGONAL covariance only MATCH
correction applied registered 8.2/10.4/13.6 were mis-paired with post-fix σ values MATCH

Provenance

script: expansion_seam/run_expansion_pulls.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: DESI DR2 BAO · Pantheon+ · DES-SN5YR · Union3 · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-26

Edges

REPRODUCES → DESI's published pattern: preference grows with the SN sample (Pantheon+ < DES-SN5YR < Union3)

Status, honestly

CORRECTED 2026-07-26 by the kill-test sweep; the audit flag it carried is resolved. Status here is computed from evidence — the author cannot set it, and neither can we. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.

§ Figures 2 from expansion_seam/run_expansion_pulls.py

What this claim's own script draws. These are the founder's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.

pulls_samples.png 57.6 KB download
pulls_uniformity.png 82.7 KB download
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