Sign-switching Λ (Λs-CDM) is NOT preferred by this data: ΔAIC = +1.50 versus ΛCDM with SH0ES included, with the vacuum flip at z = 3.11. The registered ΔAIC = −2.5 at z ≈ 2.0 came from the transposed DESI Lyman-α covariance pairing and does not reproduce.
A model this registry published as weakly preferred is disfavoured on re-run — the sign reversed once the Lyman-α covariance was fixed. The k_c ≈ Hubble-radius coincidence noted alongside it is retained only as an observation: the cutoff fit's ℓ_c grid step is 4.87% in k_c, no confidence interval exists, and any ℓ_c from 2.0 to 3.3 lands within 20% of H₀/c — it restates that the cutoff sits at the lowest multipoles, nothing more.
AUTOPSY REPORT — killed (self, the most honored outcome here)
Date: 2026-07-26 · Epitaph: "Published as weakly preferred at ΔAIC = −2.5; re-runs at +1.50, which is disfavoured. The whole reversal came from one transposed covariance block — the same Lyman-α pairing error that cost USR-2026-0001 a quarter of a sigma. Killed not because the idea is bad but because our own number was wrong, and the corrected number points the other way. The lesson is propagation: this claim sat unchanged for hours after the fix that invalidated it."
Falsify-box — how to kill this claim
Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-26
| quantity | measured | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Λs-CDM ΔAIC vs ΛCDM (with SH0ES) | +1.50 — DISFAVOURED | MISMATCH |
| registered value, superseded | −2.5 (preferred) — used the transposed Lyman-α covariance | MISMATCH |
| flip redshift | z = 3.11 (registered as z ≈ 2.0) | MISMATCH |
| ΔAIC without SH0ES | +1.1 — also disfavoured | MATCH |
Provenance
script status: PRESENT
datasets: DESI DR2 BAO · Pantheon+ · Planck CMB (compressed) · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-26
Status, honestly
kill test fired: the preference reversed sign on re-run after the DESI Lyman-α covariance fix. Status here is computed from evidence — the author cannot set it, and neither can we. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.
What this claim's own script draws. These are the founder's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.
