USR-2026-0024 · CMB
The CMB low-ℓ variance dipole is significant in this pipeline: A = 0.102 toward (l,b) = (221°, −24°), p < 0.005 — zero of 200 ΛCDM realizations exceeded the observed amplitude, so 200 sims cap the reportable significance near 2.6σ. Single configuration; no second pipeline, cleaning or mask has confirmed it.
PROVISIONAL
A = 0.102 toward (221°, −24°), p < 0.005 (200-sim floor, ~2.6σ ceiling)
reproduced ≠ discovered
re-run & confirmed 2026-07-09 (R0 — founder CI; independence pending)
CORRECTED 2026-07-26: the registered 'p = 0.000' is not supportable from 200 realizations and manufactured unearned confidence — the resolution floor is 1/201 = 0.005.
Falsify-box — how to kill this claim
UNTESTED
Pin the configuration on EVERY limb to the one the claim's number actually came from - run_tilt.py Test B: Planck SMICA field=0, NSIDE 64, band-limited l <= 64, 8 deg disks on NSIDE-8 centres, Planck common mask with NO additional |b| cut. (1) MONTE CARLO: re-run that exact configuration with >= 2000 LambdaCDM realizations and the add-one (n+1)/(N+1) estimator. DEAD if p >= 0.05. (2) CROSS-CLEANING AT THAT SAME CONFIGURATION: DEAD if Planck COMMANDER, Planck NILC or WMAP ILC, band-limited to l <= 64 under the same full common mask, returns p >= 0.05, or an amplitude outside 0.102 +/- 20 percent (0.082-0.122; stated convention, not derived). (3) DIRECTION: DEAD if the recovered dipole direction moves more than 45 deg from (221 deg, -24 deg). State explicitly what this test does NOT cover: the same estimator under a harder |b| > 30 cut in the l 2-40 band already returns p = 0.173 across all four cleanings (USR-2026-0026, run_asymmetry_deep.py), so this claim's significance is KNOWN to be mask-dependent, and limb (2) must be evaluated at the claim's own mask or it fires on mask choice rather than on cleaning.
Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-09
| quantity | measured | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| variance dipole amplitude | A = 0.102 toward (l,b) = (221°, −24°) | MATCH |
| significance | p < 0.005 — 0 of 200 sims; the floor, not a measured p-value | MATCH |
| registered value, superseded | p = 0.000 — unsupportable from 200 realizations | MATCH |
| independent confirmation | none — one cleaning, one mask, one estimator | MATCH |
Provenance
script: tilt_seam/run_tilt.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck SMICA · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck SMICA · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
Edges
REPRODUCES
→ The known Planck power/variance asymmetry, re-measured with this pipeline's estimator
Status, honestly
CORRECTED 2026-07-26 by the kill-test sweep; the audit flag it carried is resolved. Status here is computed from evidence — the author cannot set it, and neither can we. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.
§ Figures
2 from tilt_seam/run_tilt.py
What this claim's own script draws. These are the founder's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.
