USR-2026-0024 · CMB

The oldest light varies more on one side

The CMB low-ℓ variance dipole is significant in this pipeline: A = 0.102 toward (l,b) = (221°, −24°), p < 0.005 — zero of 200 ΛCDM realizations exceeded the observed amplitude, so 200 sims cap the reportable significance near 2.6σ. Single configuration; no second pipeline, cleaning or mask has confirmed it.

PROVISIONAL A = 0.102 toward (221°, −24°), p < 0.005 (200-sim floor, ~2.6σ ceiling) reproduced ≠ discovered re-run & confirmed 2026-07-09 (R0 — David Thompson's CI; independence pending)

CORRECTED 2026-07-26: the registered 'p = 0.000' is not supportable from 200 realizations and manufactured unearned confidence — the resolution floor is 1/201 = 0.005.

Falsify-box — how to kill this claim

UNTESTED Pin the configuration on EVERY limb to the one the claim's number actually came from - run_tilt.py Test B: Planck SMICA field=0, NSIDE 64, band-limited l <= 64, 8 deg disks on NSIDE-8 centres, Planck common mask with NO additional |b| cut. (1) MONTE CARLO: re-run that exact configuration with >= 2000 LambdaCDM realizations and the add-one (n+1)/(N+1) estimator. DEAD if p >= 0.05. (2) CROSS-CLEANING AT THAT SAME CONFIGURATION: DEAD if Planck COMMANDER, Planck NILC or WMAP ILC, band-limited to l <= 64 under the same full common mask, returns p >= 0.05, or an amplitude outside 0.102 +/- 20 percent (0.082-0.122; stated convention, not derived). (3) DIRECTION: DEAD if the recovered dipole direction moves more than 45 deg from (221 deg, -24 deg). State explicitly what this test does NOT cover: the same estimator under a harder |b| > 30 cut in the l 2-40 band already returns p = 0.173 across all four cleanings (USR-2026-0026, run_asymmetry_deep.py), so this claim's significance is KNOWN to be mask-dependent, and limb (2) must be evaluated at the claim's own mask or it fires on mask choice rather than on cleaning.

Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-09

quantitymeasuredverdict
variance dipole amplitude A = 0.102 toward (l,b) = (221°, −24°) MATCH
significance p < 0.005 — 0 of 200 sims; the floor, not a measured p-value MATCH
registered value, superseded p = 0.000 — unsupportable from 200 realizations MATCH
independent confirmation none — one cleaning, one mask, one estimator MATCH

Provenance

script: tilt_seam/run_tilt.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck SMICA · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09

Edges

REPRODUCES → The known Planck power/variance asymmetry, re-measured with this pipeline's estimator

Status, honestly

CORRECTED 2026-07-26 by the kill-test sweep; the audit flag it carried is resolved. This status was assigned by hand from the public re-run audit above — it is a judgement made from that evidence, not a number this site computed for itself. What cannot move it is authority: no vote, endorsement, or say-so, from anyone including the maintainer. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.

§ Figures 2 from tilt_seam/run_tilt.py

What this claim's own script draws. These are David Thompson's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.

tilt_amplitudes.png 69.8 KB download
tilt_sky.png 119.9 KB download
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