USR-2026-0021 · CMB
No bubble-collision signature in the CMB: global p = 0.903 (0.0σ); the best local candidate is a cold disk of radius 10° at (214°, -27°) with local S/N 2.6, and the Cold Spot itself scores only 1.7.
PROVISIONAL
null — p = 0.903 (0.0σ)
re-run & confirmed 2026-07-09 (R0 — founder CI; independence pending)
A disk-profile matched search for bubble-collision imprints comes back globally null. The most interesting local candidate is logged for completeness, below any evidential threshold.
Falsify-box — how to kill this claim
UNTESTED
Any matched-filter search using the same Chang-Kleban-Levi disk profile (cos theta - cos theta_c) that returns a look-elsewhere-corrected GLOBAL p <= 0.05 against a LambdaCDM null pushed through the identical max-over-position-and-radius search - i.e. a candidate whose global max |M/sigma| exceeds the LambdaCDM 95th percentile of that same max statistic. Note the bar the claim's own numbers set: the observed maximum is |M/sigma| = 2.6 at global p = 0.903, so the LambdaCDM null median of the max statistic already sits ABOVE 2.6. Firing therefore requires a candidate materially beyond the present best spot, not merely a locally 3-sigma-looking disk.
Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-09
| quantity | measured | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| global bubble p-value | 0.903 → 0.0σ | CLOSE |
| best candidate | COLD disk, r = 10° | MATCH |
| candidate local S/N | 2.6 | MATCH |
| candidate direction | (214°, -27°) | MATCH |
| Cold Spot local S/N | 1.7 | MATCH |
Provenance
script: tilt_seam/run_bubble_collisions.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck SMICA · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck SMICA · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
Status, honestly
R0 pass 2026-07-09 (close: p = 0.903 is the re-run value) | kill test added by the 2026-07-26 sweep. Status here is computed from evidence — the author cannot set it, and neither can we. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.
§ Figures
1 from tilt_seam/run_bubble_collisions.py
What this claim's own script draws. These are the founder's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it.
