USR-2026-0011 · CMB
Mode-counting scaling argument (not a Fisher forecast — no instrument noise models were used): if the significance of a horizon-scale primordial cutoff scales as the square root of the number of independent modes, then the 1.4σ CMB-temperature baseline tops out near ~2σ once partly-independent E-modes and LSS/ISW are added, because every probe at our epoch samples the same finite set of horizon-scale modes.
PROVISIONAL
~2σ ceiling from a mode-counting argument, not an instrument forecast
re-run & confirmed 2026-07-09 (R0 — founder CI; independence pending)
CORRECTED 2026-07-26: registered as a 'forecast', but the relative mode factors (1.84 for E-modes, 2.02 with LSS) are hand-assigned order-of-magnitude estimates, not derived from noise curves. The ~4–5σ 21-cm figure is NOT quantified by this computation — it rests on an asserted mode factor. µ-distortions are correctly excluded as probing the wrong scale.
Falsify-box — how to kill this claim
UNTESTED
(a) T+E: build an l-by-l Fisher forecast for the cutoff parameters (A, l_c) using LiteBIRD's published low-l EE/TE noise curves and the same cutoff model S(l) = A + (1-A)/2[1+tanh((l-l_c)/w)] as run_special_scale.py, with the fiducial FIXED at that script's own best fit (A = 0.0, l_c = 2.6, w = 1 - the fit is pinned at the A = 0 grid boundary; see figures/special_scale.png, 'power cut to 0% below l~3'). The '~1.9 sigma adding LiteBIRD E-modes' figure is DEAD if that forecast returns below 1.5 sigma or above 2.5 sigma for T+E. (b) ANCHOR: every rung is 1.4 x sqrt(mode-factor) (run_forecast.py line 60), so the ladder is DEAD at its base if USR-2026-0016's SIG_T anchor falls below 1.0 sigma under Monte-Carlo calibration of the grid-search null. (c) 21-CM - FALSIFIABLE, contrary to the draft: the factor 12.0 (line 56) is an estimate of a COMPUTABLE quantity, namely how many independent realisations of horizon-scale modes (l = 2-5, i.e. k ~ 1.4e-4 to 3.6e-4 Mpc^-1 from l = k chi* with chi* = 14000 Mpc, the seam's own D_STAR) a high-redshift 21-cm lightcone supplies relative to the single last-scattering shell. Evaluate it for a NAMED survey - SKA-Low deep field, or a dark-ages z ~ 10-30 lunar-farside tomography concept - by counting independent ~1/k-sized cells in that survey's comoving volume, or take the equivalent number from that survey's published large-scale Fisher forecast. 'Up to ~4-5 sigma in the 21-cm era' is DEAD if the resulting factor is below 4.6, i.e. a ceiling below 1.4 x sqrt(4.6) = 3.0 sigma, because the claim's whole point is that 21-cm can carry k_c to discovery level. This is a realistic outcome: the number of independent ~5000-Mpc radial shells inside chi < 10^4 Mpc is of order a few, not 12.
Verification record — every quoted number, re-run 2026-07-09
| quantity | measured | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| CMB-T baseline | ~1.4σ (USR-2026-0016) | MATCH |
| +E-modes | ~1.9σ — mode factor 1.84 hand-assigned | MATCH |
| +LSS/ISW ceiling | ~2.0σ — mode factor 2.02 hand-assigned | MATCH |
| 21-cm ~4–5σ | NOT quantified by this computation — asserted mode factor only | MATCH |
Provenance
script: boundary_seam/run_forecast.py
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck noise model · LiteBIRD forecast model · 21-cm forecast model · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
script status: PRESENT
datasets: Planck noise model · LiteBIRD forecast model · 21-cm forecast model · claim-scripts (downloadable from /data — run it yourself)
re-run: 2026-07-09
Status, honestly
CORRECTED 2026-07-26 by the kill-test sweep; the audit flag it carried is resolved. Status here is computed from evidence — the author cannot set it, and neither can we. Independent reproduction would move it; nothing else will.
§ Figures
1 from boundary_seam/run_forecast.py
What this claim's own script draws. These are the founder's committed outputs — the same plots the script regenerates on any machine that runs it. You can redraw them yourself below.
§ Reproduction
run_forecast.py
Two runs of the same script — mine, and one you can start right now. A match proves the result is reproducible; it is still R0 on this registry's independence rings — same code, so it cannot move a status. Only an outside run does that.
A · Recorded
founder's machine · 2026-08-02
Forecasting the reach on the special scale k_c ...
wrote forecast.png
THE FORECAST — honest numbers:
CMB temperature (today) .................. ~1.4 sigma [measured]
+ CMB large-scale E-modes (LiteBIRD) ..... ~1.9 sigma
+ LSS / ISW (Quaia, DESI) ................ ~2.0 sigma
+ mu-distortions ......................... ~2.0 sigma [no help: wrong scale]
+ high-z 21-cm (far future) .............. up to ~4-5 sigma
WHAT THIS MEANS:
* There IS a ceiling — but it is a ceiling, not a wall. Everything at our cosmic
epoch shares the same finite handful of horizon-scale modes, so stacking CMB-T,
CMB-E and LSS tops out near ~2 sigma. No cleverness beats it from here.
* The ceiling is BREACHABLE, but only by genuinely new modes — high-redshift
21-cm tomography samples parts of the universe's lightcone we have never seen,
giving fresh draws of the largest scales. That, in principle, can carry a real
special scale to discovery — decades out.
* So the honest end state of the lead: a real ~1.4 sigma preference now, liftable
to ~2 sigma within ~10-15 years (LiteBIRD + DESI), and decidable at discovery
level only by a future 21-cm experiment. The question the double slit started
is answerable in principle — it just lives at the very edge of what one
universe, seen once, will ever tell us. That edge has coordinates now.
B · Yours
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